What determines vulnerability to automation is not so much whether the work concerned is manual or white-collar, but whether it is routine (The Economist).

McKinsey estimates that about half of the activities (not jobs) carried out by workers will be commoditized and automated. Similarly, the OECD argues that one in seven could disappear due to automation, and one in three would change radically.

Routine work is defined as work characterized by mature process knowledge. Process knowledge is defined as the knowledge of how to produce the desired result. When process knowledge is mature, for example, in an assembly line, employees follow a prescribed set of instructions and get a certain result. Within such routine operations, uncertainty is minimal. On the other end of the spectrum, lie domains with less process knowledge termed non-routine or complicated procedures. Complex activities are more challenging. In these settings, workers must form teams with complementing skills and interact continuously to create and execute a course of action.

What is left for humans is non-routine work. And non-routine knowledge work is about creative problem-solving in teams.